由於這些國家經常經歷政治不穩定,以至於市場對這些國家的任何問題反應都如此迅速。首當其衝的便是當應對這些事件的時候,這些國家的咖啡供應能力都面臨潛在降低的風險。在這樣的時期,咖啡價格應聲上漲。正如你所預料的,巴西和越南的問題對咖啡價格的影響最大,因爲他們一起佔到了全球咖啡產量的近50%。
Here is an instance. Prior to the 2014 FIFA World Cup (soccer) hosted by Brazil, there was a crisis. While much emphasis was not laid at that time with regard to coffee prices due to the fact that coffee prices had been up for most of the year, this event sure caused a bit of change in the coffee market. The fear was that the crisis could escalate and go all the way to threaten green coffee production in the country.
這裏有一個實例。在巴西舉辦的2014屆世界盃之前,出現了一場危機。當時大家的關注焦點都不在咖啡價格上面,然而事實上當年是咖啡價格上漲最多的一年,這一事件無疑引發了咖啡市場的一些變化。人們擔心危機可能會升級最後威脅到該國的咖啡生產。
Climatic factors
氣候因素
Coffee is highly sensitive to weather conditions. It just does not thrive in certain weather conditions. From what history has shown us, we can safely say rain has to fall just about the right time and sun has to shine at right time for coffee plants to grow properly. When these things do not happen as they should, farm output becomes low and hence, supplies become a problem. This situation usually sends prices high.
咖啡對氣候條件非常敏感。它在某些天氣條件下是不會生長的。從一些歷史信息來看,我們甚至可以說爲了咖啡的正常生長,無論雨水還是陽光,都得在正確的時候出現纔行。如果不是這樣,產量會很低,從而導致咖啡供應成爲一個難題。這種情況最終引發價格上漲。
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